569 lines
16 KiB
Python
569 lines
16 KiB
Python
from __future__ import annotations
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from dataclasses import dataclass, field
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from functools import reduce
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from random import choice, randint
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from statistics import mean, stdev
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from typing import Dict, List, Optional
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import json
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# define the class Bet which inherits from Dict[int, float] and define it's __add__ method as calling combine_bets
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# Bet = Dict[int, float]
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def init_spread() -> Dict[int, float]:
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"""
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Initializes a bet with all individual placements set to 0.
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Returns
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-------
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Bet
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A dictionary representing the bet.
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"""
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D = {i: 0 for i in range(-1, 37)}
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return D
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# for two bets of structure Dict[int, float], iterate through all the keys and add up the values, returning a new dict.
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def combine_bets(bet_1: Bet, bet_2: Bet) -> Bet:
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"""
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Combines two bets into a single bet.
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Parameters
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----------
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bet_1 : Bet
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The first bet to combine.
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bet_2 : Bet
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The second bet to combine.
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Returns
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-------
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Bet
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The combined bet.
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"""
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# TODO: can remove the default 0.
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return Bet({k: bet_1[k] + bet_2[k] for k in set(bet_1) | set(bet_2)})
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@dataclass
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class Bet:
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"""A class for representing a bet."""
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spread: Dict[int, float] = field(default_factory=init_spread)
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@property
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def __nonzeros__(self) -> Dict[int, float]:
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nonzeros = dict(filter(lambda x: x[1] > 0, self.spread.items()))
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nonzeros = {k: round(v, 2) for k, v in nonzeros.items()}
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if -1 in nonzeros:
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nonzeros["00"] = nonzeros.pop(-1)
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return nonzeros
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def __repr__(self) -> str:
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"""Return a string representation of the bet."""
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return f"Bet({self.__nonzeros__})"
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# define the appearance when using print
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def __str__(self) -> str:
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return json.dumps(self.__nonzeros__, indent=4)
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def __dict__(self) -> Dict[int, float]:
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"""Return the bet as a dictionary."""
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return self.spread
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def __add__(self, other: Bet) -> Bet:
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"""Combine two bets."""
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return combine_bets(self, other)
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def __setitem__(self, __name: int, __value: float) -> None:
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"""Set the value of a placement."""
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self.spread[__name] = __value
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def __getitem__(self, __name: int) -> float:
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"""Get the value of a placement."""
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return self.spread.get(__name, 0)
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def copy(self) -> Bet:
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"""Return a copy of the bet."""
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return Bet(self.spread.copy())
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def __iter__(self):
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return iter(self.spread.keys())
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def get(self, __name: int) -> float:
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return self.spread.get(__name, 0)
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SINGLE_BETS = {str(i) for i in range(-1, 37)}
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FEASIBLE_MOVES = sorted(
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{
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*[f"street-{i}" for i in range(1, 14)],
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*[f"col-{i}" for i in range(1, 4)],
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*[f"corner-{i}-{i+1}-{i+3}-{i+4}" for i in range(1, 33) if (i - 1) % 3 < 2],
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*["1-12", "13-24", "25-36", "1-18", "19-36", "even", "odd", "red", "black"],
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*["triple-0", "triple-00"],
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*SINGLE_BETS,
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}
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)
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ALIASES = {
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"reds",
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"blacks",
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"evens",
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"odds",
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"first-half",
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"last-half",
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"second-half",
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"first-18",
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"last-18",
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"second-18",
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}
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CHIP_VALUES = {0.25, 0.5, 1, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100}
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def expected(bet: Bet) -> float:
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"""
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Returns the expected value of a bet.
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Parameters
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----------
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bet : Bet
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The bet to calculate the expected value of.
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Returns
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-------
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float
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The expected value of the bet.
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"""
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bets = list(bet.spread.values())
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cond_bets = filter(lambda x: x > 0, bets)
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amt = sum(bets)
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payout = amt * 36 / 38
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print(
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f"bet: {amt:.2f}, expected: {payout:.2f}: {payout/amt:2.4f} with std {stdev(bets*36)} mean win of {36*mean(cond_bets)} {sum(filter(lambda x: x > 0, bets))}/38 times."
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)
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return payout
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# 38 numbers, 6 street bets, 2 half-bets,
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# payout grid based on bets placed.
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# a street bet is the same as splitting the bet across all the numbers in the group.
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# will use a function to distribute / interpret the bets, but it seems like we only need to track the numbers on the wheel.
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def place_bet(bet: Bet, on: int, amount: float) -> Bet:
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"""
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Places a bet on a number.
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Parameters
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----------
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bet : Bet
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The bet to place.
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on : int
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The number to bet on.
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amount : float
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The amount to bet.
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Returns
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-------
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Bet
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A dictionary representing the bet with the new bet placed.
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"""
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bet = bet.copy()
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bet[on] += amount
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return bet
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def interpret_bet(on="red", amount=0, bet=Optional[Bet]) -> Bet:
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"""
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Interprets a bet and returns a dictionary representing the bet.
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Parameters
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----------
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on : str
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The type of bet to place.
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amount : float
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The amount to bet.
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bet : Bet
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The bet to add to.
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(default is None, which creates a new bet)
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Returns
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-------
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Bet
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A dictionary representing the bet.
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"""
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assert (on in FEASIBLE_MOVES) or (
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on in ALIASES
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), f"Bet `{on}` not understood. Choose from feasible moves:\n {FEASIBLE_MOVES}"
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if bet is None:
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bet = Bet()
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else:
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bet = bet.copy()
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REDS = {1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 12, 14, 16, 18, 19, 21, 23, 25, 27, 30, 32, 34, 36}
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BLACKS = set(range(37)) - REDS
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NUMS = {}
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on = on.strip().replace(" ", "-")
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div = 18
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if on in ("red", "reds"):
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NUMS = REDS
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if on in ("black", "blacks"):
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NUMS = BLACKS
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if on in ("odd", "odds"):
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NUMS = {i for i in range(1, 37) if i % 2 == 0}
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if on in ("even", "evens"):
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NUMS = {i for i in range(1, 37) if i % 2}
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if on in ("1-18", "first-18", "first-half"):
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NUMS = set(range(1, 19))
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if on in ("19-36", "last-18", "last-half", "second-half", "second-18"):
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NUMS = set(range(19, 37))
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if on in ("1-12", "13-24", "25-36"):
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low, high = on.split("-")
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NUMS = set(range(int(low), int(high) + 1))
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div = 12
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if on in ["triple-0", "triple-00"]:
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NUMS = {0, 1, 2} if on == "triple-0" else {-1, 2, 3}
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div = 3
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if not NUMS:
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other_bet = on.split("-")
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if other_bet[0] == "street":
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street = int(other_bet[1]) - 1
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assert street in list(range(13))
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NUMS = {i for i in range(street + 1, street + 4)}
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div = 3
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elif other_bet[0] == "col":
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col = int(other_bet[1]) - 1
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assert col in list(range(0, 3))
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NUMS = {i for i in range(1, 37) if (i - 1) % 3 == col}
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div = 12
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elif (
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other_bet[0] == "split"
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): # TODO: validate choices, for now we disallow these.
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num_1, num_2 = int(other_bet[1]), int(other_bet[2])
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NUMS = {num_1, num_2}
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div = 2
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elif other_bet[0] == "corner":
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num_1, num_2 = int(other_bet[1]), int(other_bet[2])
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num_3, num_4 = int(other_bet[3]), int(other_bet[4])
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NUMS = {num_1, num_2, num_3, num_4}
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div = 4
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else:
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try:
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NUMS = {int(on)}
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div = 1
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except ValueError as e:
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raise e(
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f"Bet `{on}` not understood. Choose from feasible moves:\n {set(range(-1, 37))}"
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)
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bet = reduce(lambda bet, num: place_bet(bet, num, amount / div), NUMS, bet)
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return bet
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@dataclass
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class Placement:
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"""
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Defines a bet based on the number of chips and value of each chip.
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Attributes
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----------
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num : int
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The number of chips to bet.
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amt : float
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The value of each chip.
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on : str
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The type of bet to place for which the chips are being used.
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"""
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num: int
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amt: float
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on: str
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def __post_init__(self):
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assert (self.on in FEASIBLE_MOVES) or (
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self.on in ALIASES
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), f"Bet `{self.on}` not understood. Choose from feasible moves:\n {FEASIBLE_MOVES}"
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def __gt__(self, other):
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return self.amt > other.amt
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def __add__(self, other):
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assert self.on == other.on, "Cannot add placements of different types."
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assert self.amt == other.amt, "Cannot add placements of different values."
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return Placement(self.num + other.num, self.amt, self.on)
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def __eq__(self, other):
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return self.amt == other.amt and self.on == other.on
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@property
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def value(self):
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"""
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Returns the value of the bet.
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"""
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return self.num * self.amt
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def bet(self, bet=None) -> Bet:
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"""
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Places a bet on the wheel based on the bet type.
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"""
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return interpret_bet(self.on, self.num * self.amt, bet)
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# for a list of Placements, call the place_bet method on each one and combine the results using reduce and combine_bets, starting with an empty dictionary as the initial argument
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@dataclass
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class Strategy:
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"""
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A strategy is a list of placements, each of which is a bet on a particular number or group of numbers.
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Attributes
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----------
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budget : float
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The amount of money to spend on the strategy.
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placements : List[Placement]
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A list of placements, each of which is a bet on a particular number or group of numbers.
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"""
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budget: float = 200
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placements: List[Placement] = field(default_factory=list)
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def __repr__(self) -> str:
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return f"Strategy(budget={self.budget}, value={self.value}, placements={self.placements})"
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@property
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def value(self):
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return sum([p.value for p in self.placements])
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@classmethod
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def generate_random(cls, budget: float, max_placements: int = 10) -> Strategy:
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"""
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Generates a random strategy.
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Parameters
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----------
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budget : float
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The amount of money to spend on the strategy.
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max_placements : int, optional
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The maximum number of placements to include in the strategy.
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(default is 10)
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Returns
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-------
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Strategy
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A random strategy.
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"""
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placements = []
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initial_budget = budget
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num_placements = 0
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while (budget > 0) and (num_placements < max_placements):
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amt = choice([v for v in CHIP_VALUES if v <= budget])
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# guarantees the max bet cannot exceed budget:
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# 4 is the max number of chips because after that you might as well use a higher chip value.
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num = randint(1, min(budget // amt, 4))
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# select random bet type
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# TODO: consider if this is the logic you want... really let's define a player's profile / psychological disposition.
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# if randint(0, 1) == 0:
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# on = choice(list(FEASIBLE_MOVES))
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# else:
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# on = choice(list(SINGLE_BETS))
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on = choice(
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list(FEASIBLE_MOVES)
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) # TODO: make a parameter, allow for just single bets.
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placement = Placement(num, amt, on)
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placements.append(placement)
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budget -= placement.value
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num_placements += 1
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return Strategy(budget=initial_budget, placements=placements)
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def print_all(self) -> None:
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for p in self.placements:
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print(p)
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def get_bet(self):
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return self.place_bets(self.placements)
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def get_placements(self):
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return self.placements
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@staticmethod
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def place_bets(placements: List[Placement]) -> Bet:
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"""
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Places a list of bets on the wheel given a list of Placements.
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Parameters
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----------
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placements : List[Placement]
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A list of Placements to place on the wheel.
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Returns
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-------
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Bet
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A dictionary representing the bet.
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"""
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return reduce(
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lambda bet, placement: combine_bets(bet, placement.bet()),
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placements,
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Bet(),
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)
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@dataclass
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class Player:
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"""
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A player of the game.
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Attributes
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----------
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budget : float
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The amount of money the player starts with.
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strategy : Strategy
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The strategy the player uses to place bets.
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id: int
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The id of the player.
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(default: random int of length 8)
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wallet : float
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The amount of money the player has left.
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(default: budget)
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"""
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budget: float
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strategy: Strategy
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id: int = field(default_factory=lambda: randint(1e8, 1e9 - 1))
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def __post_init__(self):
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self.wallet: float = self.budget
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def __repr__(self) -> str:
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return f"Player(id={self.id}, budget={self.budget}, wallet={self.wallet}, strategy={sorted(self.strategy.placements)}, strategy_cost={self.strategy.value}, strategy_budget={self.strategy.budget}, num_placements={len(self.strategy.placements)}"
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def __lt__(self, other):
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return self.id < other.id
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def simulate_random_strategy(min_num_games=1, total_budget=200) -> Strategy:
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"""
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Simulates a random strategy based on the minimum number of games that
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the player wants to play and the total budget that the player has.
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Parameters
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----------
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min_num_games : int, optional
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The minimum number of games that the player wants to play.
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(default is 1)
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total_budget : float, optional
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The total budget that the player has.
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(default is 200)
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Returns
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-------
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"""
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strategy_budget = total_budget // min_num_games
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return Strategy.generate_random(strategy_budget)
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# given BUDGET, generate a bunch of random players, each with a random strategy, and return a list of players
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def generate_players(num_players=10, min_num_games=1, total_budget=200) -> List[Player]:
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"""
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Generates a list of players with random strategies.
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Parameters
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----------
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num_players : int
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The number of players to generate.
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min_num_games : int
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The minimum number of games each player will play using their strategy and budget.
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total_budget : float
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The total budget for each player.
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Returns
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-------
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List[Player]
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"""
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players = [
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Player(
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budget=total_budget,
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strategy=simulate_random_strategy(
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min_num_games=min_num_games, total_budget=total_budget
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),
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)
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for i in range(num_players)
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]
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# if a player has placements with identical amt and on values, combine them into a single placement
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for player in players:
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placements = []
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for placement in player.strategy.placements:
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if placement in placements:
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placements[placements.index(placement)] += placement
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else:
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placements.append(placement)
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player.strategy.placements = placements
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return players
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# simulate a game of roulette, picking a random integer from -1 to 37, taking the players as inputs and returning their expected winnings
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def simulate_game(players, verbose=False) -> List[float]:
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"""
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Simulates a single game of roulette.
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Parameters
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----------
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players : List[Player]
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The players in the game.
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verbose : bool
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Whether to print the winning number.
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Returns
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-------
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List[float]
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"""
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# pick a random number
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num = randint(-1, 36)
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if verbose:
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print("WINNER:", num)
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# for each player, place their bets on the wheel
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bets = [p.strategy.get_bet() for p in players]
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# for each player, calculate their winnings
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winnings = [36 * bet.get(num, 0) for bet in bets]
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# for each player, calculate their expected winnings
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return winnings
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# simulate multiple games, reducing each player's budget by the amount of their bet and adding the amount of their winnings
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def simulate_games(players, num_games=10):
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losers = []
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for g in range(num_games):
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if not players:
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break
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# print(f"GAME {g}")
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winnings = simulate_game(players)
|
|
new_losers = []
|
|
for i, p in enumerate(players):
|
|
p.wallet -= p.strategy.value
|
|
p.wallet += winnings[
|
|
i
|
|
] # TODO: reinvestment logic goes here. maybe add "reinvest" as a player attribute?
|
|
# if a player runs out of money to keep using their strategy,
|
|
# remove them from the list of players and add them to the list of losers
|
|
if p.wallet < p.strategy.value:
|
|
new_losers.append(p)
|
|
for l in new_losers:
|
|
players.remove(l)
|
|
losers.extend(new_losers)
|
|
|
|
return players + losers
|